Chargeback Recovery in Canada: How to Measure Your Own Recovery Rate on Shopify

A Guelph board game seller reads a vendor's claim that merchants "recover 60% of chargebacks". She checks her own Shopify admin and finds that she has won 7 of her last 20 decided disputes. Is she doing badly? She cannot tell, because the vendor never said which number it meant: the share of cases won, the share of dollars recovered or the share left after fees and costs. Those three numbers can differ by a lot on the same set of disputes. Chargeback recovery is a measurement problem before it is a performance problem. This guide shows you how to define the terms, pull the data from Shopify, group disputes into cohorts so that the long review times do not distort the result, and compute a win rate, a gross recovery rate and a net recovery rate that you can trust. It gives no outside win rates as targets, because we found no Canada specific figure from a source we could check, and your own history is the right benchmark. Every Shopify rule comes from Shopify's Help Center.

Quick answer: Chargeback recovery is the money you get back from disputes, and it needs three separate measures. Win rate is cases won divided by cases decided. Gross recovery rate is dollars won back divided by dollars disputed. Net recovery rate subtracts the costs you carry: tool fees, time and the Shopify fee on losses. Measure by cohort, grouping disputes by the month they opened, because Shopify's chargeback reviews can take up to 75 days, so recent months look worse than they are until decisions arrive.

This guide is for you if:

• You sell on Shopify in Canada with Shopify Payments and you want to know whether your disputes are being won.
• You have seen recovery claims from vendors and want to measure your own numbers properly.
• You want to improve chargeback recovery without chasing benchmarks.

Last updated: 24 October 2026

Disclosure: ChargeFix publishes this guide and sells an app that helps with Shopify Payments disputes. ChargeFix cannot promise a win. The Shopify rules come from Shopify's Help Center, listed at the end. The formulas, cohort method and examples are ours, and the example numbers are invented. This guide is general information and not financial advice.

TL;DR

• Three numbers matter: win rate, gross recovery rate and net recovery rate.
• Measure by the month a dispute opened, and wait for decisions before judging a cohort.
• Count Shopify's statuses carefully: Open and Submitted are undecided; Won and Lost are decided; Resolved means settled through its network program.
• Winning returns the amount and the fee, but not your time or any tool fee.
• Improve the number you can control: evidence quality, filing rate and on time submission.

Do this today

1. Export the last 12 months of disputes with status, amount and open date.
2. Group them by the month they opened.
3. Count decided cases only and compute the win rate.
4. Compute gross recovery in dollars and net recovery after costs.
5. Note how many disputes you did not file on, which is the cheapest gap to close.

Chargeback recovery in one table

Measure	Formula	What it tells you
Win rate	Won divided by (won + lost)	How often decided cases go your way
Filing rate	Cases filed divided by cases opened	How many you actually fight
Gross recovery	Dollars returned by wins over disputed dollars	How much of the money returns
Net recovery	(Dollars won back minus costs) divided by dollars disputed	What you really keep
Cohort age	Days since the month opened	Whether a cohort is ready to judge

What is chargeback recovery?

Chargeback recovery means the money you win back from disputes. When a chargeback opens, Shopify Payments withdraws the disputed amount and a fee of C$15 or US$15 from your next available payout, and returns the fee only if you win (Shopify, Responding to chargebacks and inquiries). Winning returns the disputed amount and the fee. Losing leaves the withdrawal in place.

Recovery sounds like one number, but it is at least three. Our cost per order guide shows what a dispute costs, and this guide shows how to measure what you get back.

Term	Plain meaning
Disputed amount	What the customer's bank pulled
Fee	C$15 or US$15, returned only on a win
Decided	Won or Lost
Undecided	Open or Submitted, no outcome yet
Resolved	Settled automatically through Shopify's network program

Why do vendor chargeback recovery numbers confuse people?

Because the same data can be summarised in several ways. One vendor may report the share of cases won, another the share of dollars returned, another the share left after the vendor's own fee. A claim without its formula is a headline, not a measurement. A trade article on Canadian merchant fraud cites a vendor's 2026 field report saying contested chargebacks are won about 45% of the time, with about 18% net recovery. That is a secondhand vendor statistic in a sponsored piece and it is not specific to Canada or to Shopify Payments, so we use it only to show how far apart "win rate" and "net recovery" can be, not as a target (Retail Insider, 11 September 2026).

Which Shopify statuses count in chargeback recovery maths?

Shopify's chargebacks in admin page lists the statuses you will see. Only some of them are outcomes (Shopify, Chargebacks in admin).

Status	Meaning	Count in win rate?
Open	Shopify has not sent the response yet, so you can still add evidence	No, undecided
Submitted	The card issuer is reviewing	No, undecided
Won	Decided in your favour	Yes, a win
Lost	Decided against you	Yes, a loss
Resolved	Settled automatically through the network program	No, it was not contested

Resolved disputes are not wins and not losses in a contested sense, because Shopify's program page says there is no option to contest them and the outcome is final. They still cost a fee and count in your chargeback rate, so track them separately and do not blend them into your win rate. Our program guide explains them in full.

Status counter (adapt to your case)

Window: [dates]
Opened:       [n]
Open:         [n]   Submitted: [n]      <- undecided
Won:          [n]   Lost:      [n]      <- decided
Resolved:     [n]                       <- not contestable
Not filed:    [n]                       <- you did not respond
Check: Opened = Open + Submitted + Won + Lost + Resolved

If the check does not balance, a status is missing, and your rate is wrong.

How do you calculate your chargeback recovery rates?

Use decided cases for win rate, dollars for gross recovery, and add costs for net recovery.

Chargeback recovery formulas (adapt to your case)

W  = cases won              L  = cases lost
dW = dollars won back       dD = dollars disputed on decided cases
C  = costs: tool fees + time value + Shopify fees on losses

Win rate        = W / (W + L)
Gross recovery  = dW / dD   (returned dollars over disputed dollars)
Net recovery    = (dW - C) / dD

Example: W = 7, L = 13, dD = 1,900, dW = 665, C = 195 + 120 + 195
  Win rate       = 7 / 20 = 35%
  Gross recovery = 665 / 1,900 = 35%
  Net recovery   = (665 - 510) / 1,900 = about 8%

In this invented set the win rate and gross recovery match at 35%, but net recovery is about 8% once costs are included. That gap is why a vendor's "recovery rate" needs its formula before you compare it with yours. The example costs are 195 for Shopify fees on losses (13 at C$15), 120 for time (4 hours at C$30) and 195 in tool fees.

Rate	Example	What moves it
Win rate	35%	Evidence quality, reason mix
Gross recovery	35%	Which cases you win (big or small)
Net recovery	8%	Costs, filing time, fees

Win rate and gross recovery can differ when you win small cases and lose large ones. If you win 10 of 10 cases under C$40 and lose 5 of 5 over C$300, your win rate is 67% but gross recovery is small. Track both.

Does the fee return count as chargeback recovery?

Yes, on a win, because Shopify returns it and it leaves your payout whole. Shopify's chargeback process page says the fee is returned only on a win, while the charges page says Shopify might refund the chargeback fee depending on your country or region and does not name Canada. Trace each win in your payout records rather than assuming (fee refund guide).

Why do you measure chargeback recovery by cohort?

Because decisions take time. Shopify says a chargeback review takes up to 75 days, and an inquiry takes 65 to 75 days or longer. A dispute opened last month is almost certainly undecided. If you compute win rate over everything opened in the last 90 days, you mix old decided cases with new undecided ones, and the number moves around for reasons unrelated to your skill. Our decision timeline guide explains the wait.

A cohort is a group of disputes that share an opening month. You judge a cohort only when most of it is decided.

Cohort table (illustrative)

Cohort   Opened  Filed  Won  Lost  Resolved  Undecided  Ready?
Jan      14      12     5    6     1         2          yes (age > 90 days)
Feb      11      10     3    5     1         2          yes
Mar      16      13     4    4     2         6          not yet
Apr      12      11     1    1     0         10         no

Rule	Why
Judge a cohort only when over 80% is decided (our rule of thumb)	Avoids reading half finished results
Report undecided counts beside every rate	Shows how provisional the number is
Compare cohorts of the same age	Keeps the comparison fair
Never blend resolved disputes into win rate	They were not contested

The 80% line is our own judgment. Choose a line that fits your volume, and write it down so you apply it the same way each time.

How do you find the data in Shopify?

In your Shopify admin, go to Orders, use Search and filter, and filter by "Chargeback and inquiry status". Export the list, then add the status and dates. Shopify's chargebacks in admin page describes the same statuses. Chargeback rate lives under Analytics, Reports, where you search "Chargeback rate", and the order details page shows the fee on resolved cases.

Field	Where	Why
Order and dispute ID	Orders list	Link everything
Amount	Order details	Gross recovery
Reason	Dispute details	Reason mix
Opened date	Dispute details	Cohort
Due date	Dispute details	Filing check
Status	Orders filter	Win rate
Fee and refund	Payout records	Net recovery

What drives chargeback recovery up or down in a Canadian store?

Four things sit behind most recovery numbers, and only some are in your hands.

Driver	In your control?	What to do
Evidence quality	Yes	Build the file in the right order; see the evidence order guide
Filing rate	Yes	File on every case worth fighting before the due date; see the deadline guide
Reason mix	Partly	Prevent the types you lose most
Issuer decisions	No	Shopify says decisions are final

Your reason mix matters a lot. A store with mostly "product not received" disputes and strong delivery proof can win more than a store with mostly fraud disputes and little to show. Compare win rate by reason, not just overall. See our guides on not received, fraudulent, friendly fraud and subscription disputes.

Win rate by reason (adapt to your case)

Reason               Decided  Won  Win rate  Avg amount  Gross recovery
Product not received    9      5    56%       C$78        [compute]
Fraudulent              7      1    14%       C$112       [compute]
Not as described        3      1    33%       C$64        [compute]
Subscription            1      0     0%       C$35        [compute]

A low win rate on fraud with a high average amount is where prevention beats evidence. A high win rate on "not received" says your delivery proof works, so keep doing what works.

How does filing rate change chargeback recovery?

A dispute you do not answer is a loss by default. Shopify says that on the due date it sends a response with the data it holds, and nothing can be added after. So an unfiled dispute still goes out, but without your evidence. Filing rate is the cheapest gap to close. If you file on 70% of opened cases and win half of those, your recovery is lower than if you file on 100%.

Filing rate (adapt to your case)

Opened: [n]   Filed with your evidence: [n]
Filing rate = filed / opened
Missed due dates: [n]   Reasons: [list]

What realistic improvement plan raises chargeback recovery?

Aim for steady gains in the numbers you control, not a headline rate.

Step	Action	Measure
1	Reach a filing rate near 100% on cases worth fighting	Filing rate
2	Grade evidence before filing; skip weak ones	Share of A and B grades filed
3	Fix the top reason you lose	Win rate for that reason
4	Prevent the top reason you cannot win	Disputes opened
5	Review cohorts monthly	Cohort win rate

Our worth fighting guide shows how to decide which cases to file, and the how to win guide lists what strong files contain. Do not file on every small case just to raise filing rate, because net recovery can fall if the time cost exceeds the gain.

What does chargeback recovery look like in a worked year?

Here is one invented year for a Canadian board game store, to show how the pieces combine. The numbers are for the method, not a target.

Month opened	Opened	Filed	Won	Lost	Resolved	Undecided	Disputed (C$)	Won back (C$)
Jan	14	12	5	6	1	2	1,120	400
Feb	11	10	3	5	1	2	880	255
Mar	16	13	4	4	2	6	1,330	340

For January and February (both ready), decided cases are 5 + 6 + 3 + 5 = 19, with 8 wins. Win rate is 8 / 19, about 42%. Disputed dollars on decided cases are roughly 1,500 and won back 655, so gross chargeback recovery is about 44%. After costs of about 520 (Shopify fees on 11 losses is 165, tool fees 200, time 155), net recovery is (655 - 520) / 1,500, about 9%.

Worked year check (illustrative, C$)

Win rate        = 8 / 19                     = 42%
Gross recovery  = 655 / 1,500                = 44%
Net recovery    = (655 - 520) / 1,500        = 9%
March cohort: 6 of 16 undecided -> not ready; do not judge yet

The lesson is not the 9%. It is that the same disputes give 42%, 44% and 9% depending on the question, and that you cannot compare your number with a vendor's until you know which one they mean.

How do you use the reason mix to lift chargeback recovery?

Your reason mix decides where effort pays. Sort reasons by decided cases, win rate and average amount, then act on the top two.

Pattern	Meaning	Action
High volume, high win rate	Your proof works	Keep the routine; protect it
High volume, low win rate, large amounts	Money leaking	Prevent, or fix the evidence
Low volume, low win rate	Small leak	Accept; do not over invest
Many unfiled	Process gap	Fix filing before anything else

Reason mix review (adapt to your case)

Top reason by cases:       [name]  win rate [x%]  avg C$[ ]
Top reason by dollars:     [name]  win rate [x%]  avg C$[ ]
Biggest gap:               [reason]  action: [prevent / improve evidence / skip]
Owner and date:            [name] [date]

Prevention often beats evidence on fraud and "not recognized" cases. Our descriptor guide and prevention emails guide show low cost fixes. For evidence heavy reasons, the customer emails guide and the Canada Post proof guide show what to attach.

How often should you review chargeback recovery?

Monthly is enough for most stores. Add the new month's cohort, mark older cohorts that have become ready, update win rate by reason and note one change to test. A quarterly review compares net recovery against the last quarter and decides whether a tool, a template or a process change is worth keeping. Keep the status counter in one sheet so the checks stay fast.

Cadence	Task	Time
Weekly	Check due dates; file on cases worth fighting	15 minutes
Monthly	Update cohort table and status counter	30 minutes
Quarterly	Recompute net recovery; decide on changes	1 hour

How do you set chargeback recovery goals that make sense?

Goals should be about things you control, set against your own baseline, and small enough to check in one quarter. A goal like "raise chargeback recovery to 60%" is a wish. A goal like "file on every case worth fighting before the due date and lift evidence grade A and B share from 40% to 60%" is a plan.

Goal type	Example	How to check
Process	Filing rate on worthwhile cases reaches 95%	Status counter, monthly
Quality	Share of A and B evidence grades rises	Evidence grade log
Prevention	Disputes opened for the top reason fall by a quarter	Reason mix sheet
Outcome	Cohort win rate beats last year's same cohort	Cohort table
Money	Net recovery rises by two points	Quarterly review

Quarterly goal sheet (adapt to your case)

Baseline net recovery:    [x%]     Baseline filing rate: [x%]
Goal 1 (process):         [text]   Owner: [name]  Date: [ ]
Goal 2 (prevention):      [text]   Owner: [name]  Date: [ ]
Goal 3 (quality):         [text]   Owner: [name]  Date: [ ]
Result at quarter end:    [numbers]  Keep / change / drop

Process and prevention goals move first. Outcome goals follow once the longer review times play out, which is why chargeback recovery improvements can take a quarter or more to show in the numbers.

What can chargeback recovery not tell you?

It cannot tell you why an issuer decided as it did, because Shopify says decisions are final and gives no appeal route for them. It cannot tell you whether a lost case was winnable unless you grade the evidence at the time. And it cannot compare your store with another store, since reason mix, order size and volume differ. Use it to see your own trend and to find the one change worth making next. If you grade evidence before filing, the grade log lets you later ask "were my A grades winning more than my C grades?", which is a much better question than "is my rate good?".

Question	Can chargeback recovery answer it?
Is my filing process leaking?	Yes, through filing rate
Which reason costs me most?	Yes, through reason mix
Is my evidence improving?	Yes, if you grade it
Why did the issuer decide this way?	No
Am I better than other stores?	No

Who should own chargeback recovery in a small team?

One person, with a weekly slot. Dispute work slips when it belongs to everyone. In a solo store that person is you, with a calendar reminder. With a team, name an owner and a backup, and keep the sheet where both can see it. If time is the limit, compare the options in our virtual assistant guide and agency guide, and weigh costs with the protection cost guide.

How does ChargeFix help with chargeback recovery?

We want to be plain about the limit. ChargeFix cannot promise a win, cannot contest disputes that Shopify's network program resolves automatically and cannot change an issuer's decision. What it does is improve the parts you control.

1. Dispute fetched. ChargeFix fetches each chargeback as it opens, so the reason, amount and due date sit in one list and nothing is missed.
2. Records read. It reads the order, addresses, fulfilment and tracking data, and refund history.
3. Evidence scored. It shows what is present and what is missing, with a plain verdict: worth fighting, improve the evidence first or weak evidence.
4. Letter from facts. The response is drafted only from verified facts, so it never claims a delivery or message your records do not show.
5. Your choice of mode. ChargeFix prepares each response in Manual mode, which is the default. You review and file it, or let Auto mode handle them. Auto mode is on Starter plans and above, off until you turn it on and confirm.

ChargeFix handles Shopify Payments disputes only. It stores minimal data: case ID, amount, reason, status, dates and shop settings. The free plan includes 2 filings a month, and every paid plan starts with a 14 day free trial.

What dated plan builds your chargeback recovery baseline?

Day	What you do	Done when
1	Export 12 months of disputes with status, amount and dates	File saved
2	Run the status counter; fix any imbalance	Check balances
3	Build the cohort table	Cohorts marked ready or not
4	Compute win rate, gross and net recovery for ready cohorts	Three numbers written
5	Compute win rate by reason	Reason table filled
7	Measure filing rate and missed due dates	Gaps listed
10	Pick one fix: filing, evidence or prevention	Change scheduled
30	Add the new month to the cohort table	Trend visible
90	Judge the cohort that was undecided at day 1	Result compared with baseline

What is different about chargeback recovery in Canada?

Topic	What applies in Canada	What to do
Fee currency	C$15 or US$15, matching the payout currency	Record fees in the payout currency
Review time	Up to 75 days for a chargeback; 65 to 75 days or longer for an inquiry	Wait before judging a cohort
Decisions	Final, no appeals	Put effort into the first file
Program disputes	Resolved automatically, fee C$15 or US$15, no contest	Track separately
Complaints	Shopify Payments (Canada) acknowledges within 5 business days and decides in writing within 45 days	Use for service concerns, not for reversing a decision
Shopify Protect	US stores only	It does not apply to Canadian stores

A note on outside numbers. We found no Canada specific win rate from a source we could verify, and vendor figures usually come from vendor customers. Use your own history as the benchmark, and treat any outside figure as context only.

What are the 10 mistakes to avoid with chargeback recovery?

1. Quoting a rate without its formula. Win rate, gross and net differ.
2. Counting undecided cases. Open and Submitted have no outcome.
3. Blending resolved disputes into win rate. They were not contested.
4. Judging this month's cohort too soon. Decisions take up to 75 days.
5. Ignoring unfiled cases. They drag recovery down quietly.
6. Forgetting costs. Net recovery is the number that pays bills.
7. Chasing a benchmark. Your own trend is more useful.
8. Not splitting by reason. One weak reason can hide behind a good average.
9. Filing every small case. Time can exceed the gain.
10. Assuming the fee came back. Trace it in your payout records.

Frequently asked questions

What is chargeback recovery?

Chargeback recovery is the money you win back from disputes. A chargeback withdraws the disputed amount and a fee from your payout, and winning returns both. Measure it with win rate, gross recovery rate and net recovery rate, because each tells a different part of the story.

How do I calculate my win rate?

Divide cases won by cases decided, where decided means Won plus Lost. Leave out Open, Submitted and Resolved. For example, 7 wins and 13 losses give a win rate of 7 divided by 20, or 35%. Report undecided counts beside the rate.

What is the difference between gross and net recovery?

Gross recovery is the dollars returned by wins divided by the disputed dollars. Net recovery subtracts your costs first: tool fees, the time you spend and the Shopify fee on losses. A 35% gross recovery can fall to under 10% net once those costs are counted, as the example shows.

Why does my recent win rate look low?

Because many recent disputes are undecided. Shopify says a chargeback review takes up to 75 days, so last month's cases are mostly open or submitted. Group disputes by their opening month and judge a cohort only once most of it is decided.

Do resolved disputes count as wins?

No. Resolved means Shopify settled the case automatically through its network program, with no option to contest and a final outcome. Track resolved cases separately, since they cost a fee and count in your chargeback rate, but are not wins or losses in a contested sense.

What win rate should I aim for?

Aim to beat your own baseline rather than chase an outside number. We found no Canada specific win rate from a source we could check, and vendor figures often reflect their own customers. Measure by cohort, and improve filing rate, evidence quality and prevention.

Does winning a chargeback lower my chargeback rate?

No. Shopify's monitoring page says winning does not remove a chargeback from your rate, so chargeback recovery protects cash, while fewer disputes lower the rate. That is why prevention and recovery work together and neither replaces the other in a healthy store.

How do I find my dispute data in Shopify?

In your admin, go to Orders, use Search and filter and choose "Chargeback and inquiry status". Export the list and add amounts, reasons, open dates and statuses. Chargeback rate is under Analytics, Reports. Fees appear on the order details page for resolved cases.

Should I fight every dispute to raise recovery?

No. Fight the cases where expected chargeback recovery beats your cost in time and fees. Grade your evidence first and skip weak small cases. Net recovery can fall if you spend more time than the money returned, so the goal is smart filing, not maximum filing.

How does ChargeFix help with chargeback recovery?

ChargeFix cannot promise a win or change an issuer's decision, but it fetches each dispute, reads your order and tracking data, scores the evidence and drafts the letter from verified facts, so nothing is missed. In Manual mode, the default, each response waits for you.

Start free trial with ChargeFix

You now have the definitions, the three formulas, a cohort method, a status counter and a baseline plan. The honest limit is that no tool can promise a win, and recovery depends on your reasons, your evidence and the issuer. What you can control is filing every case worth fighting, building files in the right order and preventing the disputes you cannot win. ChargeFix fetches the dispute, reads your Shopify order data, shows what is missing and writes the response from verified facts. Manual mode keeps the filing with you, and Auto mode is there if you turn it on.

The free plan includes 2 filings every month, and every paid plan starts with a 14 day free trial. There is no cut of what you win, and no contract.

Ready to measure and improve your chargeback recovery? Start free trial

Sources

• Shopify Help Center, "Responding to chargebacks and inquiries"
• Shopify Help Center, "Chargebacks in admin"
• Shopify Help Center, "Chargebacks and inquiries"
• Shopify Help Center, "Network dispute resolution programs"
• Shopify Help Center, "Chargeback monitoring"
• Shopify Payments (Canada), "Code of Conduct complaint handling"
• Retail Insider, "Fraud is costing Canadian merchants more than they may realize", sponsored article citing a vendor report; context only
• ChargeFix, "chargefix.pro"